Feasibility Demonstration of an Aircraft Performance Risk Assessment Model

This paper presents the development of an Aircraft Performance Risk Assessment Model (APRAM). The model consists of a set of software tools that processes aircraft data available from Digital Flight Data Recorders (DFDRs) and Quick Access Recorders (QARs) to identify precursor events and compute incident and accident risks. The feasibility version of the generic risk assessment model is limited in scope to controlled flight towards terrain (CFTT) and controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) incident and accident types respectively. The objective of this research is to develop a computer model that uses both empirical data and expert judgement to quantify the risk of an incident and/or accident. The general approach taken in assessing risk is to develop an automated means of analyzing commercial aircraft flight recorder data from routine flights, combining the use of exceedance information from the data with information about the contextual factors that are not directly available from the data recorders. Expert opinion is incorporated through the use of knowledge-based rules. This information is analyzed to identify incident and/or accident precursors and their contributing factors. The output from the model is a risk estimate that includes consequence, severity, and probability of occurrence, similar to that used for aircraft certification.